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  • Breaking News

    北京PK论坛:Is the U.S. Jobs Report too Bad to Be True?

    Economic IndicatorsMar 08, 2019 10:05AM ET
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    北京赛车pk10助赢软件 www.ztid.net www.ztid.net - For traders obsessed with job creation as a reflection of the American labor market, Friday’s release of the monthly employment report was a dismal message for the U.S. economy. But if cooler heads prevail, one-off data with a background of escalating wages could well paint quite another picture for Federal Reserve policymakers struggling to stay on hold.

    “Yes, only 20,000 jobs were added in February, but please do not start freaking out about a recession. One month does not make a trend,” Heidi Shierholz, director of the Economic Policy Institute, said.

    She explained that harsh weather contributed to weakness in February with depressing job growth in construction, hotels and restaurants and noted that average job growth for the last three months was 186,000, “a much better reflection of underlying trends”.

    James Knightley, ING chief international economist, also put into question Friday’s report. “While the U.S. economy is clearly facing some headwinds, this report seems very odd since it completely contradicts other evidence such as the ISM employment indices, the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) report and the NFIB jobs number,” he said.

    In any case, a long expansion in the American labor market has been reducing slack, providing less and less room for further job creation in an economy that is near full employment.

    That is starting to be felt in wage growth which the Fed is closely watching as it keeps open the possibility of a rate hike in the second half of the year.

    Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month, above forecasts for a 0.3% rise, and by 3.4% on an annualized basis, its highest in 10 years. For most of the expansion, wage increases have lagged an otherwise healthy labor market.

    Former New York Fed president William Dudley warned earlier this week that investors should not assume the pause in policy tightening meant that the U.S. central bank was done raising rates.

    “People should be careful about jumping to such conclusions. Although the Fed is likely to stay on hold for the next few months, after that it’s anybody’s guess,” he wrote in an opinion piece for Bloomberg published on Wednesday.

    Using Dudley’s “few months” as a guideline, that leaves the U.S. central bank three meetings - March 20, May 1 and June 19 - to keep an eye on developments, including the progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations, the global slowdown and an increasingly tight labor market stateside.

    Knightley in the meantime emphasized his call for one more Fed rate hike this year, noting the solid health of Corporate America, potential for the global growth outlook to improve if the U.S. and China resolve their trade dispute and the increase in inflation pressures on the back of rising wage growth.

    “Consequently, we still think there is a strong case for another interest rate rise this summer, which is clearly at odds with a market pricing the next move as being a cut,” Knightley concluded.

    Is the U.S. Jobs Report too Bad to Be True?
     

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    Comments
    Mar 09, 2019 1:49AM ET
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    Take the false (PPT) number that was reported in December and fhis one and average them out. You’ll come up with accurate numbers for both months.
    Reply
    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 3:35PM ET
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    1 month is enough for Trump to take credit for the economy in jan 2017. Interesting that it isn't enough now
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    2 1
    Mar 08, 2019 3:20PM ET
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    I consider every other report (Unemployment rate, wages) are positive I see no reason to believe it indicate a job market crash
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    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 1:08PM ET
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    It's a ruse. When its updated it will be up.
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    0 3
    Mar 08, 2019 12:40PM ET
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    About 390K non-agricultural employees were unable to work because of weather conditions last month, the highest total since January 2018 and well above the February average.
    Reply
    3 0
    Mar 08, 2019 12:40PM ET
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    Farse people worked from home
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    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 12:40PM ET
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    So the data is true
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    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 12:40PM ET
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    How much of a weather has impact in internet age. This just excuse news to cover
    Reply
    0 1
    Mar 08, 2019 12:40PM ET
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    Exactly. Cherry-picking data allows any story to be told.Now, the wise reader knows that Spring is just 12 days away, and the situation will change. Just because Chicken Little is running in circles ... does'nt necessarily mean the sky is falling.
    Reply
    2 0
    Mar 08, 2019 11:38AM ET
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    how many more bad economic reports have to come out before they are no longer "one off reports"
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    6 0
    Mar 08, 2019 11:38AM ET
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    Almost all of them are bad reports not one off
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    1 1
    Mar 08, 2019 11:37AM ET
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    let's pray for it not happens
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    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 11:33AM ET
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    What does that mean to Financial market
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    0 1
    Mar 08, 2019 11:33AM ET
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    It means exactly what a reader, who only reads the first paragraph will comprehend. Negative news of any kind, equates to fear of market decline, and the resulting sell-off panick drives the market downward. Those, who will read the entire report however, will comprehend the impending short-term dip in the market, and take advantage of the drop in stock values across the board, to purchase bargains that inevitably reap profits once the dust settles.
    Reply
    1 7
    Mar 08, 2019 11:33AM ET
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    Marshall, when do you feel that the consumer teaches their debt limit and begin to negatively impact the economy? We've had a debt driven recovery for more than a decade. The minute the Fed raises rates modestly, the market softens. That should tell you how fragile the economy is
    Reply
    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 10:38AM ET
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    read it and weeeep
    Reply
    0 4
    Mar 08, 2019 10:38AM ET
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    Why are you weeping. Do you really want your countries economy to fail. Sure sounds like it. Very sad.
    Reply
    7 1
    Mar 08, 2019 10:38AM ET
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    yes because it will prevent donald trump from being reelected and that is way more important than avoiding recession. recession is inevitable eventually so let some good come from it
    Reply
    0 0
    Mar 08, 2019 10:25AM ET
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    politics... Trump is already planning his second term strategy
    Reply
    6 2
    Mar 08, 2019 10:25AM ET
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    God save us all!
    Reply
    3 1
    Mar 08, 2019 10:25AM ET
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    Umm. Can you say Polar Vortex two times? Also. The organization doing the reports works for the president. Are there still Obama holdouts in that organization?
    Reply
    2 11
    Mar 08, 2019 10:25AM ET
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    that's pretty ignorant
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    4 0
    Mar 08, 2019 10:24AM ET
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    Oil sell ;)
    Reply
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  • 8单位首次发出广州建筑遗产保护利用倡议 2019-03-11
  • 腐败分子是从一个鸡蛋开始的,在一定的位置有一定的权力,今天收别人一个鸡蛋没费任何力气,明天又有人送十个也不用力气。胃口就越来越大,感觉太多了一个人吃不了怕咽死, 2019-03-09
  • 金华强化生态环保长效管理 浙江在线环保新闻网 2019-01-04
  • 全球"最抢手"高校毕业生排名出炉:北大超过牛津 2019-01-04
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